The global exports of durum faced a significant surge in the year 2019/20 of 8.9 million tons. In 2020, Canada is leading in the wheat market as a top exporter, dominating global trade having 60% shares in the wheat market. The trade boost found in durum was typically due to COVID-19 pandemic causing various shifts in durum consumption. Canada continues dominance in market share in 2020/2021 as Italy became the biggest durum wheat buyer having 27% year to date exports from Canada (SaskWheat development commission). Moreover, sizable durum exports await from Canada and the US in 2020/21.
The sizable Pasta factories in Italy also boosted durum wheat capacity to meet an increase in consumer’s demand. Italy imported about million tons in 2019/20. Due to the rise in demand for durum wheat, Canada urged to increase export capacity, causing the crop area to expand for about 16%. This situation as per statistics will allow Canada durum’s crop to reach 6.1 million tons in 2020/21, which is the highest in four years. Meanwhile, durum forecast for the US indicates that durum wheat production in the US expects to increase 1.9 million tons, about 28% more than the last year. However, durum wheat consumption forecast for 2020/21 will not translate production gains to the US.
The global wheat utilization expects to increase about 0.1% from last year in 2020/21 following US, EU and Pakistan more, then balancing descending revisions in the Philippines and Argentina. Furthermore, wheat trade in 2020/21 is expected to exceed the record of the previous year 2019/2020 due to the strong demand for import from China, EU, Morocco, Egypt and Pakistan. Large shipments are expected from Canada, Australia and Russian Federation as per SaskWheat development commission report. Wheat supplies are expected to tighten in major exporting countries as wheat ending stocks cut to 3.8 million tons in EU, US and Russian Federation on downward revisions for ending the year of 2021.
As per the harvest conditions, AIMS report signifies weather conditions effect regarding significant wheat exporting countries. As per AIMS report, harvest conditions in Canada are quite favorable, as the harvest is sowing for winter and wrapping up for spring. Meanwhile planting winter conditions regarding the US are mixed, due to dry expanded areas in the central and southern US plains. As per Australia forecast, it will face a light shower of rain over crop areas having cold temperatures, taking into account the west.
As per EU forecast for 2020/21, both France (largest wheat producer in EU) and the UK forecasts denote them to see 5 MMT fall in their wheat crops to about “500,000 HA and 250,000 HA” decrease in planted areas. The wheat planted region of France will face a reduction in harvest production due to adverse weather conditions and crop rotations. However, durum planting in France predicts to have stability. The UK is also forecasted to face challenging planting conditions as the area might face intense rainfall, wet conditions, and flooding, resulting in the prevention of planting wheat.
Durum prices expected to get better in 2020/21 as elevator companies are bidding $8.50 per bushel to deliver large quantities to their selected areas; therefore, deferred costs are expected to improve regarding durum wheat.